February 26, 2008
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has suggested that he may give an endorsement to one of the two remaining Democratic candidates and added, "I don't think this race is over."
As one of the seven Democratic dropouts (Richardson ended his bid for the Democratic nomination in January) Richardson holds additional weight simply because of his Latino background. An endorsement from him would certainly carry a lot of weight in the form of the Latino vote.
For Hillary Clinton, a Richardson endorsement couldn't come at a better time as the front page of every national newspaper continues to only report how great Barack Obama is doing. Just today, the New York Times released its first official poll that shows Obama significantly ahead of Clinton in the national vote.
On the other hand, if Richardson endorses Obama it could cut the Ohio and (a Latino) Texas string her hopes still dangle from.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Weight of Wisconsin
February 19, 2008
Despite the fact that there are actually three states voting today, only the one in Wisconsin deserves any real interest from those following the tight race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
With temperatures across the state not reaching 20 degrees, Wisconsin voters had to fight the elements to make it to the polls in a race particularly important for Clinton as polls indicate she may have a chance to break Obama's hot streak.
Perhaps (certainly, might be more appropriate of a term) more important than any primary or caucus going on today is the ongoing battle for a potential endorsement by John Edwards who dropped out of the race for the Democratic ticket late last month. Clinton met with Edwards earlier this month, Obama flew to North Carolina on Sunday for a meeting.
An endorsement from Edwards would definitely give either candidate a huge push heading towards March.
Despite the fact that there are actually three states voting today, only the one in Wisconsin deserves any real interest from those following the tight race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
With temperatures across the state not reaching 20 degrees, Wisconsin voters had to fight the elements to make it to the polls in a race particularly important for Clinton as polls indicate she may have a chance to break Obama's hot streak.
Perhaps (certainly, might be more appropriate of a term) more important than any primary or caucus going on today is the ongoing battle for a potential endorsement by John Edwards who dropped out of the race for the Democratic ticket late last month. Clinton met with Edwards earlier this month, Obama flew to North Carolina on Sunday for a meeting.
An endorsement from Edwards would definitely give either candidate a huge push heading towards March.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Who wins the Superdelegates?
February 14, 2008
Unofficially/officially, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will claim the required 2,025 pledged delegates to earn the Democratic party nomination. Unofficially because it could happen. Officially because it won't.
Therefore, the remaining caucuses and primaries become a battle between the two to persuade the superdelegates, elected Democrats and party leaders, for votes. Superdelegates are given the advantage of voting independently.
Obama, along with many experts, says that whoever wins the majority of delegates and popular vote, which he has just recently taken the lead of over Clinton, should claim the superdelegates. If not, it could create fractions within the party and come off as undemocratic.
That sounds legitimate, but wait just a second. If we're worried about primaries and caucuses not counting, what about Michigan and Florida? That's 366 delegate votes that aren't being counted because the two states moved their primaries ahead without permission. It was Clinton who won big there, even though neither candidate actively campaigned there. It's now created an interesting position in this year's tight contest because those are delegates that could get one of the candidate's number to 2,025 and eliminate the superdelegate debate altogether.
Obama is emerging as the front runner here but if Clinton can pull out wins in Ohio and Texas it could, coupled with the fact that she won in both Michigan and Florida where votes weren't acknowledged, persuade the superdelegates to give her the win this summer.
Unofficially/officially, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will claim the required 2,025 pledged delegates to earn the Democratic party nomination. Unofficially because it could happen. Officially because it won't.
Therefore, the remaining caucuses and primaries become a battle between the two to persuade the superdelegates, elected Democrats and party leaders, for votes. Superdelegates are given the advantage of voting independently.
Obama, along with many experts, says that whoever wins the majority of delegates and popular vote, which he has just recently taken the lead of over Clinton, should claim the superdelegates. If not, it could create fractions within the party and come off as undemocratic.
That sounds legitimate, but wait just a second. If we're worried about primaries and caucuses not counting, what about Michigan and Florida? That's 366 delegate votes that aren't being counted because the two states moved their primaries ahead without permission. It was Clinton who won big there, even though neither candidate actively campaigned there. It's now created an interesting position in this year's tight contest because those are delegates that could get one of the candidate's number to 2,025 and eliminate the superdelegate debate altogether.
Obama is emerging as the front runner here but if Clinton can pull out wins in Ohio and Texas it could, coupled with the fact that she won in both Michigan and Florida where votes weren't acknowledged, persuade the superdelegates to give her the win this summer.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Worrying about Hillary? Don't.
Febrary 11, 2008
Now, I'm not saying...I'm DEFINITELY not saying...Don't worry about Hillary because she's going to win. I don't know that. Right now nobody knows that. I'm saying don't worry about Hillary because she is still in a fine position to win.
Yes, Clinton has been losing primaries and caucuses like thoughtful dialouge in a Stallone movie. But there is still plenty fight to her campaign.
A campaign that has taken a different look as of today now that Clinton has replaced her campaign manager, Sollis Doyle, with longtime adviser Maggie Williams. Of course, such a move doesn't necessarily symoblize strength, but this isn't going to bring the Clinton campaign down.
Another consideration is that media have been reporting that finances have been a problem for the Clinton campaign, as evident by a $5 million loan acquired by Hillary earlier this year and that some of her aides were working for free.
So you may be wondering - Losing states, changing campaign managers and short on cash - Why shouldn't I worry about Hillary again? Because despite this weekend's sweep by Barack Obama, she still holds a narrow lead in delegates, will certainly find the funds to stay in the race, and polls still show she holds a slight edge in the Super Super Tuesday states of Texas and Ohio.
Obama is winning battles, but the war is still very much undecided.
Now, I'm not saying...I'm DEFINITELY not saying...Don't worry about Hillary because she's going to win. I don't know that. Right now nobody knows that. I'm saying don't worry about Hillary because she is still in a fine position to win.
Yes, Clinton has been losing primaries and caucuses like thoughtful dialouge in a Stallone movie. But there is still plenty fight to her campaign.
A campaign that has taken a different look as of today now that Clinton has replaced her campaign manager, Sollis Doyle, with longtime adviser Maggie Williams. Of course, such a move doesn't necessarily symoblize strength, but this isn't going to bring the Clinton campaign down.
Another consideration is that media have been reporting that finances have been a problem for the Clinton campaign, as evident by a $5 million loan acquired by Hillary earlier this year and that some of her aides were working for free.
So you may be wondering - Losing states, changing campaign managers and short on cash - Why shouldn't I worry about Hillary again? Because despite this weekend's sweep by Barack Obama, she still holds a narrow lead in delegates, will certainly find the funds to stay in the race, and polls still show she holds a slight edge in the Super Super Tuesday states of Texas and Ohio.
Obama is winning battles, but the war is still very much undecided.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
February 7, 2008
So, here's what the rest of the Hillary vs. Obama fight looks like:
With primaries scattered among the following two weeks in Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, Washington, Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin the focus becomes the perception of momentum.
The Democratic nomination will certainly not be decided until March 4, what I'm calling "Super, Super Tuesday", when Ohio and Texas hold their primaries. Thus, the significance in winning the primaries leading up to that is to simply persuade Ohio and Texas voters of an advantage over the other.
In reality though, who holds (who appears to at least) the advantage in each issue? Our Hill, Barack & John ADVANTAGE should give us a peak into the future:
Economy: Not surprisingly, both candidates have attacked the Bush Administration's tax cuts for the wealthy. Their plans for replacing higher taxes on upper-income America are similar...the difference is that Americans remember the good ole' days when Bill Clinton was president and people ACTUALLY HAD MONEY. Not even that they had money, but that they were able to use credit and pay it back. Hillary has been able to capitalize on this perception of an economy-friendly candidate and coupled it with a promise to create jobs in finding alternative energy.
Advantage: Clinton.
Iraq: They both want to get the troops out now. They both have similar withdrawal deadlines to do so. HOWEVER, Obama voted against the war from the start, Clinton voted to authorize the 2003 invasion . America has shown appreciation for Obama's early vision that the war in Iraq...would suck.
Advantage: Obama.
Experience: Everyone's sick of hearing about it, but is it relevant? Obama is not necessarily unequipped to handle the oval office. He was a community organizer in Chicago, he worked within the legal system as a lawyer after attending Columbia University and he's been a senator for Illinois. The Clinton name is like the Wal-Mart of politics though. She has the political ties, the long voting record and Bill on her side.
Advantage: Clinton.
Environment: Although they both hold similar ideas, Obama has been more appealing to environmental groups. He scored the highest among Democratic candidates in a test that considered past voting records. He has a reputation of caring for the environment that has stuck to his presidential campaign.
Advantage: Obama.
Health Care: Up in the air really. Which will work better? Clinton proposes universal health care...but can the government really promise that? Obama wants to insure America's children and force employers to pick up the rest. That's great but...still...as Clinton said in a former debate...it's still not universal.
Advantage: Tie.
So, by the end it's Obama 2.5 and Hillary...2.5? Well ADVANTAGE...that doesn't really tell us crap does it?
So, here's what the rest of the Hillary vs. Obama fight looks like:
With primaries scattered among the following two weeks in Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, Washington, Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin the focus becomes the perception of momentum.
The Democratic nomination will certainly not be decided until March 4, what I'm calling "Super, Super Tuesday", when Ohio and Texas hold their primaries. Thus, the significance in winning the primaries leading up to that is to simply persuade Ohio and Texas voters of an advantage over the other.
In reality though, who holds (who appears to at least) the advantage in each issue? Our Hill, Barack & John ADVANTAGE should give us a peak into the future:
Economy: Not surprisingly, both candidates have attacked the Bush Administration's tax cuts for the wealthy. Their plans for replacing higher taxes on upper-income America are similar...the difference is that Americans remember the good ole' days when Bill Clinton was president and people ACTUALLY HAD MONEY. Not even that they had money, but that they were able to use credit and pay it back. Hillary has been able to capitalize on this perception of an economy-friendly candidate and coupled it with a promise to create jobs in finding alternative energy.
Advantage: Clinton.
Iraq: They both want to get the troops out now. They both have similar withdrawal deadlines to do so. HOWEVER, Obama voted against the war from the start, Clinton voted to authorize the 2003 invasion . America has shown appreciation for Obama's early vision that the war in Iraq...would suck.
Advantage: Obama.
Experience: Everyone's sick of hearing about it, but is it relevant? Obama is not necessarily unequipped to handle the oval office. He was a community organizer in Chicago, he worked within the legal system as a lawyer after attending Columbia University and he's been a senator for Illinois. The Clinton name is like the Wal-Mart of politics though. She has the political ties, the long voting record and Bill on her side.
Advantage: Clinton.
Environment: Although they both hold similar ideas, Obama has been more appealing to environmental groups. He scored the highest among Democratic candidates in a test that considered past voting records. He has a reputation of caring for the environment that has stuck to his presidential campaign.
Advantage: Obama.
Health Care: Up in the air really. Which will work better? Clinton proposes universal health care...but can the government really promise that? Obama wants to insure America's children and force employers to pick up the rest. That's great but...still...as Clinton said in a former debate...it's still not universal.
Advantage: Tie.
So, by the end it's Obama 2.5 and Hillary...2.5? Well ADVANTAGE...that doesn't really tell us crap does it?
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Finding meaning in Super Tuesday
February 5, 2008
With the results of Super Tuesday still (at best) a few hours away or even (at worst) not available until Wednesday morning (especially California) the focus today will stick to what the results coming in ACTUALLY MEAN...for those of you who will be glued to the results tonight but might not understand their significance.
Of course, no state means more than the nightcap in California, particularly this year to Hillary Clinton who is considered to have a personal tie there. Afterall it WAS Bill Clinton, not an Obama, that visited the state eight times during his first year of office and helped California on a number of social and economic issues.
Another state holding a lot of weight, perhaps mostly symbolically, is Clinton's home state of New York. Anything less then a convincing win in New York could hurt Clinton as
A. She's a senator there for crying out loud and
B. The media polls have shown she has a pretty tight grip there.
If Obama makes a surge in New York, it shows that Clinton is unable to command the voters even of HER state.
Lastly, obviously, the swing states (states where the two candidates are evenly matched) will be of major importance because they are the question marks on the board and, if won in large by one candidate, could give either Clinton or Obama a significant edge.
No matter how the results come in, no one expects the race to be over by the time the last votes of Super Tuesday have been counted. According to experts, this race isn't over yet.
With the results of Super Tuesday still (at best) a few hours away or even (at worst) not available until Wednesday morning (especially California) the focus today will stick to what the results coming in ACTUALLY MEAN...for those of you who will be glued to the results tonight but might not understand their significance.
Of course, no state means more than the nightcap in California, particularly this year to Hillary Clinton who is considered to have a personal tie there. Afterall it WAS Bill Clinton, not an Obama, that visited the state eight times during his first year of office and helped California on a number of social and economic issues.
Another state holding a lot of weight, perhaps mostly symbolically, is Clinton's home state of New York. Anything less then a convincing win in New York could hurt Clinton as
A. She's a senator there for crying out loud and
B. The media polls have shown she has a pretty tight grip there.
If Obama makes a surge in New York, it shows that Clinton is unable to command the voters even of HER state.
Lastly, obviously, the swing states (states where the two candidates are evenly matched) will be of major importance because they are the question marks on the board and, if won in large by one candidate, could give either Clinton or Obama a significant edge.
No matter how the results come in, no one expects the race to be over by the time the last votes of Super Tuesday have been counted. According to experts, this race isn't over yet.
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